Coffee with Crawford: My Associated Press Preseason Men's Basketball Top 25 Ballot
Louisville, Kentucky (WDRB) - I won't lie, this day has been nerve-wracking. It's my first Associated Press Top 25 ballot, and there's no way to avoid looking like a complete novice. We're ranking teams we know very little about, and the goal is to rank them based on their current performance, not their potential in March. But, of course, there are too many unknowns. Who can predict how well transfer portal players will integrate? Who might suddenly become a household name?
Can Florida defend its title? Will Houston make a comeback? Is this Purdue's year to reach the Final Four? These questions linger, and last year, no one had the answers. Only three teams in the 2024 preseason Top 10 managed to stay in the top 10 by the end of the year. Of the 14 teams that appeared in both polls, the average ranking discrepancy was a staggering 7.5 spots. Florida, the eventual national champion, started the season ranked 21st.
Kansas, UConn, Baylor, and North Carolina all began the season in the top 10 but finished unranked. Teams that finished 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th were all unranked at the start. You get the idea.
For my initial poll, I relied on a combination of consensus, gut instinct, and a substantial amount of data from Bart Torvik's ratings, which I highly respect. I gave more weight to teams with a higher number of returning players, especially in this early-season assessment. However, any blunders are solely my responsibility.
Here's my ballot:
- Houston: With three starters returning from a team that narrowly missed the national championship, Houston has a strong chance to make it to Indianapolis for another Final Four. Their returning core positions them well to be a force from the opening game.
- Purdue: Another team with a strong returning lineup and an exceptional coach. If they were coming off a Final Four season, they'd likely be ranked higher. Nonetheless, the prospect of Purdue reaching the Final Four in Indy will be a significant motivator in West Lafayette throughout the season.
- Florida: The team that won it all last year is a serious contender to repeat, largely due to Boogie Fland's decision to join the Gators. The addition of Princeton transfer Xavian Lee and big man Alex Condon, who was crucial to last season's success, makes them a force to be reckoned with.
- UConn: The Huskies boast three returning starters, and with the addition of Georgia transfer Silas Demary, they're bringing renewed defensive intensity. Danny Hurley's commitment to defense is a key factor.
- Duke: Despite having no returning starters, Duke's inclusion in the top 5 is justified by the presence of Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans, along with the addition of Maliq Brown from Syracuse. However, it's the freshmen, like Cameron Boozer and his brother Cayden, as well as Dame Sarr and Sebastian Wilkins, that elevate Duke's ranking.
- St. John's: Rick Pitino's only returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a standout player. He swiftly rebuilt his team through the portal, adding Bryce Hopkins, Joson Sonon, and Oziyah Sellers, and all signs point to success. Additionally, he has five international players, though no true point guard. Still, we trust Rick Pitino implicitly.
- Michigan: Dusty May's team is set to build on a successful debut season in Ann Arbor. With two starters returning from last season's Sweet 16 squad, plus the addition of transfer point guard Elliott Caeau from North Carolina and Yaxel Lendeborg, a top-ranked transfer from UAB, Michigan is poised for a strong showing.
- BYU: Kevin Young's team achieved a remarkable 26 wins last season, the most for a first-year coach in school history. With the addition of freshman AJ Dybantsa, the top-ranked recruit in the country, BYU is poised for even greater success this season.
- Kentucky: Mark Pope has Otega Oweh back, and his team boasts one of the deepest rosters in the country. He added Denzel Aberdeen from Florida, Mo Dioubate from Alabama, and Jaland Lowe from Pittsburgh. With Brandon Garrison starting in the post, look out when Jayden Quaintance returns to full health.
- Louisville: Pat Kelsey's team had some unfortunate injury setbacks, but Year 2 will be no less challenging. He adds shooting talent with transfers Adrian Wooley, Isaac McKneely, and Ryan Conwell, along with top freshman Mikel Brown. J’Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor return, and Ali Khalifa joins after a redshirt season.
- UCLA: The addition of New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent should propel Mick Cronin's team in Westwood.
- Texas Tech: Grant McCasland is a skilled coach, and I'd rank him in the top 15 without even considering his roster. But with JT Toppin as an All-American, Texas Tech is a force to be reckoned with.
- Alabama: I might have the Crimson Tide a bit too low, especially if this is Nate Oats' best-shooting team.
- Arizona: Tommy Lloyd has three starters returning, and the addition of high-scoring freshman Brayden Burries further strengthens his team.
- Arkansas: John Calipari's team has depth, solid experience with DJ Wagner and Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond, and his usual impressive corps of recruits.
- Iowa State: A typically good-shooting, tough defensive team under T.J. Otzelberger, with four starters who played key roles last season in Ames.
- Tennessee: I expect Tennessee to finish higher, but with a mix of new players, including Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie, they might need time to gel. Freshman Nate Ament will be a game-changer by season's end.
- Illinois: This team has more consonants in the starting lineup than any other in America. With four expected starters whose last names end with 'c,' they're a force to be reckoned with.
- Kansas: Bill Self has no returning starters but boasts the No. 2 recruit in the nation, Darryn Peterson. He also has former Louisville swingman Tre White as a projected starter.
- Gonzaga: Mark Few returns only one starter, but with some older transfers, including Tyon Grant-Foster and Graham Ike, Gonzaga is a team to watch.
- Auburn: I love the War Eagles' roster and Tahaad Pettiford, but the departure of Bruce Pearl is a concern. I've adjusted their ranking slightly, but they can work their way back up.
- Wisconsin: Greg Gard's team averaged over 80 points per game last season, and Madison's offense is no fluke. With Kamari McGee back, expect more of the same.
- Creighton: Greg McDermott has a couple of starters returning from a team that beat Louisville in the NCAA first round last season. He also has five rotation players back and adds high-scoring Charlotte point guard Nik Graves. Transfers Josh Dix, who averaged 14.4 points per game, and who scored 16.7, both come from Iowa.
- Michigan State: Tom Izzo's team's ranking is a bit of a toss-up. Losing Kaleb Glenn to an injury is a setback, but he's got some talented portal additions and solid freshmen. With a bit of duct tape and some Izzo magic, they'll be near the top of the Big Ten.
- North Carolina: It's a pivotal year for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill. With plenty of size, 6-10 freshman Caleb Wilson will need to make an early impact.
Quick Sips
HOOSIER POWER: If you missed it, Indiana is one of the best teams in college football. Check out my column (https://www.wdrb.com/sports/) from Saturday's upset win over No. 3 Oregon.
BUSY MONDAY: Today, Jeff Brohm discusses Louisville's crucial ACC matchup against No. 2 Miami on Friday. Mark Stoops faces an uneasy bye week before a press conference on Saturday's game against Texas. Jeff Walz talks at Louisville's women's basketball luncheon. And, of course, the AP men's basketball preseason poll is released at 2 p.m.
The Last Drop
'Last year, I was the way I was because I thought I needed to take over this program. I kind of led the charge the way I was out there a little bit. I knew that early on in December. I thought we established credibility last season. And I didn't need to be that way, and I could focus on what I do best: coaching this football team.'
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti on his tone moderation since his early days in Bloomington
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